By Justine Irish D. Tabile, Senior Reporter
THE PHILIPPINES faces greater economic risks from a poorly scrutinized 2027 national budget than from a temporary budget reenactment, analysts said, as Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio’s impeachment trial threatens to disrupt congressional deliberations.
“Ultimately, a temporary reenactment may be less damaging than rushing through a national budget that has not been properly scrutinized,” Arjan P. Aguirre, an assistant political science professor at the Ateneo de Manila University, said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
He said the impeachment proceedings could delay deliberations on the proposed P7.2-trillion budget, raising the possibility that Congress might fail to approve the spending plan before yearend.
“However, my greater concern is not reenactment itself, but the possibility of passing a poorly scrutinized budget with questionable allocations, inadequate funding for essential programs or excessive appropriations that unscrupulous politicians could exploit,” he added.
A reenacted budget could delay infrastructure projects and government programs, restrict agencies’ spending flexibility and slow public spending, weighing on economic growth, he added.
Under the Constitution, the previous year’s General Appropriations Act (GAA) remains in effect if Congress fails to approve a replacement before the year ends.
The proposed P7.2-trillion budget for 2027 is about 6% higher than this year’s P6.793-trillion spending plan.
The House of Representatives approved the measure on second reading on Oct. 7 and is expected to pass it on third and final reading on Oct. 12.
The Senate postponed budget deliberations to accommodate Ms. Duterte’s impeachment trial but is expected to resume hearings this week.
Mr. Aguirre urged lawmakers to complete deliberations before yearend without sacrificing scrutiny of proposed allocations.
He called for closer cooperation with civil society groups, academic institutions and the media to identify questionable spending items.
“Congress should also make budget amendments and their justifications more accessible, allowing stakeholders to scrutinize questionable allocations and track how their concerns are addressed,” he said.
Government Watch Convenor-Director Joy G. Aceron warned that Congress should not allow the impeachment proceedings to disrupt its budget responsibilities.
“A reenacted budget is prone to corruption,” she said via Facebook Messenger. “Congress must not allow this to happen. The impeachment is important, but it shouldn’t undermine the other important functions of Congress.”
Ms. Aceron said safeguards against corruption should extend beyond budget approval to government procurement, project implementation and auditing.
“Scrutiny at the budget adoption process is never enough,” she said. “There should be provisions for transparency, participation and accountability during procurement and implementation, and the accountability system needs to be strengthened and enabled.”
She urged lawmakers to provide sufficient funding for monitoring and auditing and incorporate safeguards into the budget law.
“Additional safeguards and the allocation for it can be incorporated in the GAA itself, so that it becomes a budget policy — every allocation has corresponding checks that are enabled with needed support and resources,” she said.
Meanwhile, IBON Foundation Executive Director Jose Enrique “Sonny” A. Africa said the risk of a reenacted budget remains low despite the impeachment proceedings.
“The impeachment proceedings consume political attention and complicate legislative negotiations but the risk of a reenacted 2027 national budget is low,” he said in a Viber message.
Mr. Africa said lawmakers have incentives to approve the budget on time because government programs and projects could benefit their electoral prospects ahead of the 2028 elections.
He warned, however, that the proposed spending plan might be insufficient to stimulate the slowing economy and improve household incomes.
Mr. Africa said the budget would increase by just 4.2% when interest payments are excluded, below his estimate of inflation at 5% to 6% or higher this year.
“The greater economic risk is not a reenacted budget but the inadequacy of the proposed budget itself, particularly amid slowing growth and worsening living conditions,” he said.
The Philippine economy grew 2.6% in the first half, below the government’s full-year growth target of 3.5% to 4.5%.
Mr. Africa also raised concerns about questionable allocations and political patronage, citing limited accountability in the flood control corruption scandal.
He said Congress should examine whether proposed allocations are sufficient to address economic and social problems, rather than focusing solely on their legitimacy.
“There isn’t a contradiction between timely budget approval and rigorous scrutiny if Congress was genuinely committed to both,” he said.
“The real danger is not a delayed budget but another budget that is rushed through Congress, remains vulnerable to corruption, and fails to address the country’s urgent economic and social problems,” he added.