By Pexcel John Bacon
THE PHILIPPINES should invest more in military equipment and technology to counter Chinese maritime pressure despite expanding its defense cooperation with France, security analysts said.
Chester B. Cabalza, president of International Development and Security Cooperation, said the Senate’s concurrence in the ratification of the Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (SOVFA) with France boosts Manila’s defense partnerships but must be backed by greater military capabilities.
“Both democratic militaries still deem that the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), international laws and the 2016 arbitral award are living sentinels that matter to current international maritime norms,” he said in a Facebook Messenger chat.
The agreement lets Philippine and French military personnel hold joint exercises and training in each other’s territories, making France the first European country to enter into such an arrangement with Manila.
Mr. Cabalza said cooperation should extend beyond naval and aerial patrols to cybersecurity and technologies that could strengthen maritime surveillance and protect the country against emerging security threats.
“While traditional naval and aerial joint patrols are necessary to defend our UNCLOS award, our law enforcers and state protectors must build cyber infrastructure,” he said.
He warned that artificial intelligence (AI), drones, robotics and autonomous vessels could complicate maritime security operations, requiring the Philippines to modernize its defense capabilities.
“The current deterrence posture of the Philippines must forcefully adjust as the world faces agentic AI and a plausible hyper war caused by cyber and cognitive domains in defense posture,” he said.
Mr. Cabalza also urged stronger responses to Chinese gray-zone activities, which involve coercive actions that fall short of conventional armed conflict.
“The Philippines should have done what Taiwan did recently to counter Chinese gray-zone tactics,” he said, urging Manila to move beyond “performative politics” in managing territorial disputes.
He proposed using water cannons against vessels challenging Philippine sovereignty, arguing that diplomatic protests alone might not deter such activities.
Hansley A. Juliano, a political science lecturer at the Ateneo de Manila University, said the Philippines should avoid relying too heavily on foreign defense partnerships because domestic political and economic pressures could limit the support its partners provide.
“I am inclined to read the VFA with France as primarily a continuation of exercises and support, delivered for optics but strapped by their domestic reality,” he said via Messenger.
Mr. Juliano cited France’s fiscal pressures and the possibility that greater overseas military commitments could generate domestic opposition, limiting the resources available for international security cooperation.
He compared these constraints with the domestic pressures facing the US as it seeks to maintain its global influence, warning that foreign defense commitments could become difficult to sustain.
Mr. Juliano said the Philippines should continue boosting its international defense partnerships while investing in military equipment specifically designed to counter external threats rather than domestic security challenges.
“The Philippines does have to continue its current strategy, but nothing will replicate investment in hardware that needs to be justified as trained towards external threats, not against citizens,” he said.
He said public mistrust of security institutions could weaken confidence in the government’s shift toward external defense, even as military and security agencies increasingly emphasize territorial protection.
The Armed Forces of the Philippines, Philippine Coast Guard and Department of National Defense must demonstrate that military spending and training are directed toward protecting the country against external threats, he added.
Mr. Juliano also warned that Chinese pressure on Taiwan could offer lessons for the Philippines, particularly regarding territorial blockades and restrictions on access to disputed waters.
“Anything that is being done to Taiwan will likely be done to us and worse,” he said.
He urged Manila to study how Taiwan responds to Chinese coercion as it prepares for possible attempts to restrict access to contested maritime areas.
The Philippines and China have repeatedly clashed over maritime activities in the South China Sea, where Beijing claims sovereignty over waters that overlap with Manila’s exclusive economic zone.
A 2016 international arbitral tribunal rejected the legal basis for China’s expansive maritime claims under its nine-dash line. Beijing has refused to recognize the ruling.