The country’s business outlook and consumer sentiment improved in the fourth quarter of the year as the economy’s gradual reopening continues, a pair of Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) surveys revealed on Friday.
Results of the central bank’s latest Business Expectations Survey (BES) put the October-to-December confidence index (CI) — computed as the percentage of companies that answered in the affirmative minus those who replied otherwise — at 10.6 percent, reversing the -5.3 percent posted in the third quarter.
“The positive reading indicates that respondents with optimistic views increased and outnumbered those with pessimistic views,” the BSP said.
Respondents attributed their upbeat outlook to the reopening of businesses and their adapting to the new normal; easing of community quarantines nationwide; seasonal factors, such as the uptick in demand during the holidays and the start of the milling season; and increase in sales and orders.
The poll, which surveyed 1,513 companies nationwide, was conducted from October 6 to November 24.
On the newest Consumer Expectations Survey (CES), the BSP said its results raised the overall consumer confidence index (CI) for the last quarter to a less pessimistic -47.9 percent from -54.5 percent in July to September.
“The improved CI, albeit remaining negative, indicates that the number of households with optimistic views increased, but was still lower than those with pessimistic views,” it added.
The CES respondents credited their improved outlook to their expectations of the availability of more jobs; increased income; effective government policies and programs, such as the Social Amelioration Program and the Department of Agriculture’s Plant, Plant, Plant program; and fewer community restrictions, the reopening of more businesses, and end to the coronavirus pandemic.
The survey, which measures outlook about the country’s economic condition, family financial situation and family income, was conducted from October 1 to 13. It covered 5,612 households nationwide.
For the next quarter, the central bank said business and consumer sentiment would continue to improve.
“Improved business sentiment persisted for Q1 (first quarter) 2021, with the next-quarter CI rising to 37.4 percent from the previous quarter’s survey result of 16.8 percent,” it said.
The BSP pointed respondents’ more buoyant outlook for the next thee months to expectations of more firms reopening and adapting to the new normal; the country’s gradual recovery from the pandemic, particularly with the anticipated availability of a coronavirus vaccine; further relaxation of quarantine restrictions; and growing sales and orders.
Meanwhile, consumer sentiment for January to March turned positive, with the CI rising to 4.3 percent from the third quarter’s -4.1 percent.
Consumers cited their expected availability of more jobs and more working family members; income increases; the end of the pandemic and the discovery of a vaccine; and reopening of businesses as reasons for their hopeful outlook.
For 2021, the Bangko Sentral said the business outlook was more optimistic, as the CI rose to 57.7 percent from July-to-September’s 37.5 percent. Consumer outlook remained upbeat, with the CI at 23.6 percent, lower than the previous quarter’s 25.5 percent.