PHILIPPINE PORK production in 2022 is expected to be flat at 1 million metric tons (MT), with the hog industry still recovering from the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
In a report, the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service said the estimate is in terms of carcass weight equivalent (CWE).
“Industry contacts report prospects remain uncertain amid continuing cases (of ASF) across the country,” the USDA post in Manila said.
“Post maintains 2021 production at 1.0 million MT, as the recent ASF outbreaks in Cagayan Province and Ilocos Norte are offset by active repopulation efforts of a few commercial pig farms in Tarlac. Some ASF-free areas in Mindanao and the Visayas have also increased their production,” it added.
It does not expect a recovery until 2024, adding that prospects remain “uncertain” due to ongoing outbreaks.
“While some commercial farms have started to repopulate to maintain their business, producers have generally remained cautious absent a commercially-available vaccine,” it said.
The USDA estimated that pork imports for 2021 of 500,000 MT, upgrading its previous estimate of 425,000 MT after incorporating recent trade data.
However, it said import volume will fall to 375,000 MT in 2022 with the “scheduled expiration of additional pork minimum access volume (MAV) and reversion of pork tariffs to the previous higher rates by the first half of 2022.”
The USDA said it projects per-capita consumption of pork in 2021 at 13.5 kilograms (kg) due to increased market access.
However, it estimated per-capita consumption for 2022 to drop to 12.2 kg with the planned end of the expanded MAV volume and lower tariffs on pork imports.
The USDA said chicken meat production is expected to increase 2% to 1.36 million MT in 2022 on the back of “improving economic conditions,” while the 2021 output was maintained at 1.33 million MT.
It added that chicken meat imports for 2022 are estimated at 400,000 MT, down 5% from the revised USDA 2021 projection of 420,000 MT.
“Post revises 2021 imports up 70,000 MT to 420,000 MT to reflect strong trade to date. Chicken exports to the Philippines through July 2021 are 36% higher than 2020, with North American and Brazilian poultry showing robust growth,” it said.
“Post sees chicken per capita consumption slightly declining in 2022 to 15.6 kg, as moderately higher consumption does not match population growth. For 2021, chicken per capita consumption is estimated at 15.8 kg,” it added.
It projected Philippine carabeef and beef production in 2022 at 190,000 MT, reflecting the higher average weights of cattle in response to demand. Its projection for 2021 is 180,000 MT.
“Post expects production to slow down in the second half of next year, reverting closer to average production growth levels,” the USDA said.
It said beef imports for 2022 will total 230,000 MT, while imports for 2021 are estimated at 225,000 MT.
“Traders expect a muted remainder of the year, however, due to the Philippine temporary ban on Brazilian beef imports following an atypical case of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy,” the USDA said.
“Post forecasts 2022 beef consumption at 404,000 MT, rising 3.7% from 2021, at 225,000 MT, as consumers continue purchasing beef amidst the ASF situation affecting pork prices,” it added. — Revin Mikhael D. Ochave