In the beginning of the year, the government assured the Filipino people of sufficient power supply for all — just enough to meet their energy needs.
But everything changed when the coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic struck the country.
When the government first placed Metro Manila and many parts of the country under one of the most stringent quarantines in March, the Department of Energy (DoE) observed a decline of up to 30-percent in power demand, as compared with the same period a year ago.
Energy Secretary Alfonso Cusi had said there were delays in ongoing construction in the Philippine energy sector. Besides the fact that some foreign contractors and workers were not able to travel to the country, there were also issues of late delivery of imported equipment and parts needed for energy facilities.
Amid perceived delays in the completion of ongoing projects and repairs, the agency allayed fears of the public and said the country has enough power supply for the year.
Furthermore, data from the agency showed that the demand for petroleum products decreased by 22.8 percent in the first semester of 2020 due to reduced economic activity from lockdown and travel restrictions caused by the Covid-19 pandemic.
Flat power demand
Given the unexpected turn of events, the Energy department revised its power outlook for 2020, seeing this year’s power demand and supply would remain at the same level as last year’s amid the public health crisis.
“Almost no growth tayo kaya ang ine-expect nating movement ng demand towards the end of the year is just around the 2019 levels (We are expecting almost no growth in electricity consumption so the movement of demand we are expecting towards the end of the year is just around the 2019 levels),” Energy Assistant Secretary Redentor Delola said.
With the stay-at-home order, electricity consumption in the residential sector significantly increased as people are working from home or, in the case of students, studying from home.
Following the imposition of the community quarantines, electricity consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors drastically declined as the majority of economic activities slowed down.
“Yong share ng residential sector sa entire consumption ng ating system, Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao medyo tumaas pero hindi niya na-compensate yung pagbagsak naman from the commercial and the industrial sector (What happened during the pandemic was electricity consumption in the residential sector surged but it could not compensate the decline from the commercial and the industrial sector),” he said.
In the case of the Visayas and Mindanao, the Energy official said the virus had minimal impact on power demand because it was mostly residential that was driving demand.
Last year, electricity demand in the country peaked at 15,581 megawatts (MW) in the previous year, based on the DoE’s 2019 Power Situation Report. The figure was 5.4-percent higher than the peak demand of 14,782 MW in 2018.
Citing data from the system operator, Luzon grid took the lion’s share as the region recorded an actual peak demand of 11,344 MW. Peak demand in the Visayas stood at 2,224 MW and in Mindanao, 2,013 MW.
The DoE previously forecasted this year’s peak demand to reach 12,285 MW in Luzon; 2,519 MW in Visayas; and 2,278 MW in Mindanao.
Can the power sector recover?
Cusi himself admitted it is “very difficult” to say whether or not electricity and fuel demand will return to 2019 levels. Yet, once the economy reopens, higher domestic consumption is expected.
“As far as power demand is concerned, there will be surge when we fully open the economy,” said Cusi in a recent virtual briefing, adding the industry continues to build capacity to meet rising electricity demand.
“We are trying to prepare the power supply into a level where we will have a normal operation already. and you know how it takes time before we build capacity,” the Energy chief told reporters.
The 1,336-MW supercritical coal-fired power plant in Dinginin, Bataan, which Aboitiz Power Corp. owns through subsidiary GNPower Dinginin Ltd. Co., was supposed to come online this year but the lockdowns hampered its timely completion. Instead, the first unit of this coal facility would commence commercial operations by the second quarter of 2021.
That is the same case for the country’s petroleum supply, unless the population will be vaccinated against the virus probably from the second half of 2021.
Cusi implied: “It may not go back immediately to the 2019 level,” adding “I think it will be, not at that level, but it will be within the range, especially if our population will be vaccinated, magkakaroon yan ng demand (the demand will surge).”
“Also, nagkakaroon tayo ng opening in the transportation sector (the transportation sector is opening up again), where even the provincial buses are allowed to operate, so magkakaroon na tayo ng (so there will be an) increase in demand in petroleum,” he added.
Nonetheless, Cusi said the current situation presents both “a problem and an opportunity” to do the catchup work in bolstering the country’s supply.