Given the challenges and setbacks experienced this year, people all over are counting down time when 2020 will end. But we expect that the world’s collective focus will not be on the past but on the road ahead toward making an economic recovery.
The Philippine economy is expected to make a substantial rebound, with gross domestic product (GDP) forecast to range from 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent in 2021. Also, this region is likely to fare better than the rest of the world, with the West grappling with the highest number of cases and deaths from the pandemic. Notably, China is expected to lead major economies with its “underwhelming” 2.1-percent growth forecast for 2020. Thus, expected recovery in Asia is encouraging, and the Philippines stands to benefit from that.
As promising as 2021 may be, however, there is a growing shadow coming from the Korean peninsula, tempering optimism. The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), or simply North Korea, is as unpredictable as ever. Peace talks remain at an impasse over its refusal to abandon its nuclear and ballistic weapons program, threatening prospects and stability in the region, including Southeast Asia. North Korea’s supreme leader Kim Jong Un demands that economic sanctions be lifted before denuclearization. Pyongyang resists compromise, raising questions whether it can be trusted to deliver its part of any bargain.
Earlier in June, North Korea blew up a joint liaison office near Kaesong, largely out of frustration with the world not caving in to its demands. That building was established in 2018 to help North Korea and South Korea communicate, something critical not only for peace but also for coordinating the global effort to combat Covid-19.
Since talks stalled, North Korea has been occasionally testing missiles, and not long ago in a military parade, it unveiled its biggest ballistic weapon to date. Still, the world continues to tolerate Mr. Kim’s antics, perhaps knowing what is at stake.
Should North Korea make good on its military threats, that would likely involve a number of our neighbors in a way that compromises economic prospects. First, South Korea, with whom DPRK remains officially at war, is not only a key tourist market for the Philippines and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean); it is also a major trading partner and source of foreign investments.
China and perhaps Japan could be drawn into a hot conflict in the Korean peninsula, as well. Both are powerhouse economies, important not only for Asia but also for the rest of the world. China, along with Hong Kong, is the largest trading partner of the Philippines and of Asean.
For its part, Asean plays a role in encouraging North Korea to choose peace over war. The first summit between Mr. Kim and an incumbent US president was hosted in Singapore, and the second in Vietnam. Earlier in 2008, Asean and North Korea signed a Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) that promises effective cooperation, as well as mutual respect for the independence, sovereignty, equality, territorial integrity and national identity of all nations.
Regrettably, Mr. Kim has done nothing to deserve all the goodwill extended to his country. He demands respect from the world but persists in behaving like a child that throws tantrums whenever he does not get his way.
Suffering the most are the North Koreans themselves. In October, Human Rights Watch reported that people there are treated “as less than humans.” And earlier this month, eight countries denounced North Korea after a UN Security Council meeting organized by Germany. In a statement, they said human rights in DPRK were “appalling” and worsening.
What is actually worse from our standpoint is the capability of North Korea to throw a proverbial monkey wrench at the region’s plans for economic recovery, which of course impacts this country. If only for that, Southeast Asia and the rest of the world should continue pressing North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambition and tone down its belligerent posturing.
With so many suffering from the pandemic and economic fallout, recovery not only has added significance, but also urgency. After 2020, the last thing we all need is another bump on the road.