By Pexcel John Bacon
CONGRESS’ early support for President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr.’s legislative agenda is likely to weaken as the 2028 elections draw nearer, with lawmakers expected to prioritize politically popular measures over more contentious reforms, political analysts said.
Congress has historically rallied behind a President’s legislative priorities in the weeks following the State of the Nation Address (SONA), when the chief executive’s political capital is at its strongest, according to University of Santo Tomas Political Science Department Chairman Dennis C. Coronacion.
“Historically, Congress plays a game of follow the leader right after a SONA, rushing to pass the President’s wish list while his political power is at its peak,” Mr. Coronacion told BusinessWorld in a Facebook Messenger chat.
He said the 20th Congress appears to be following the same pattern, but with less time to act as the Marcos administration enters its final two years in office.
“The 20th Congress is following this exact pattern, but with a ticking clock,” he said. “Because we are entering the final two years of the administration, lawmakers are starting to look out for their own survival.”
Mr. Coronacion said legislators are likely to prioritize “easy, popular bills” while putting politically sensitive measures on the back burner to avoid alienating voters ahead of the 2028 elections.
Legislative priorities tend to evolve as elections approach, he said.
“Early on, lawmakers play a team game. They pass the President’s bills to get rewards like local project funding and party backing,” Mr. Coronacion said. “But as an election gets closer, lawmakers become selfish. They stop trying to please the President and start trying to please the voters.”
“They drop complicated, controversial reforms and focus only on easy, crowd-pleasing laws that can boost the likelihood of their electoral success in 2028,” he added.
University of the East political science professor Eric Daniel C. de Torres said Congress is expected to continue advancing the administration’s legislative agenda, particularly because a majority of lawmakers in both chambers have aligned themselves with the President.
“Congress should and must act on the legislative agenda of the President,” he told BusinessWorld via Messenger chat.
He noted, however, that lawmakers face a limited window to enact key measures before election politics begins to dominate.
He said the Presidential Legislative Liaison Office, together with the leadership of the House of Representatives and the Senate, would be crucial in ensuring that the administration’s priorities are translated into legislative action and included in the agenda of the Legislative-Executive Development Advisory Council.
Mr. de Torres added that the President’s certification of priority measures as urgent could further speed up their passage.
However, he said sustaining support might prove more difficult in the Senate than in the House.
“For the House of Representatives, I think yes, but in the Senate it would be quite challenging,” he said, citing the presence of reelectionist senators, political divisions between allies of Mr. Marcos and former President Rodrigo R. Duterte, and public perceptions of the administration’s performance as factors that could shape legislative dynamics in the coming months.