THE rainfall deficit is expected to worsen in the coming months and affect almost all parts of the country amid the persisting strong El Niño, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA).
In its Climate Outlook on Wednesday, PAGASA said strong El Niño remains present in the tropical Pacific and is expected to persist until the first half of 2027.
Amid the phenomenon, below-normal rainfall is expected across almost all parts of the country in October, indicating a 20% to 60% reduction from normal levels, PAGASA said.
This is expected to worsen in many areas to a way-below-normal state from November to December, indicating a reduction of more than 60% from normal levels; and will likely affect nearly all parts of the country from January to March, PAGASA said.
Up to 84 areas are projected to be under drought conditions by March. This means rainfall will have been reduced by more than 60% from average levels for three consecutive months or will have been below normal by 21% to 60% for five consecutive months.
However, PAGASA said up to five tropical cyclones could still develop or enter the Philippine area of responsibility until March 2027 despite the El Niño.
The country may also be affected by other weather systems, such as the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the shear line, and the northeast monsoon. — Edg Adrian A. Eva